Practice · graded on a filing

DCF sensitivity grid — NVDA

Build it from NVDA’s latest annual filing. Every line you enter is checked by code against the filing.

What this drill asks

Re-run the single-stage DCF arithmetic nine times: the stated discount rate one percentage point below, at, and above its base, crossed with terminal growth half a point below, at, and above its own. Each cell of the 3 × 3 grid is the implied enterprise value at that pair of stated rates; the centre cell is the single-stage DCF drill's own sum. The grid shows how the arithmetic responds when a stated assumption moves — it stops at enterprise value in every cell and never reaches a per-share number. Every figure you are given comes from NVDA’s latest annual filing and is cited below; the assumptions are handed to you and are never graded. Nothing here is a view on the company.

Reconcile NVDA's model from the filed figures below (as of 2026-01-25). Derive each linked line to the dollar — the model must reconcile end to end.

Given (filed figures)

Operating cash flow (FY2026, filed): $102,718,000,000
Interest expense (FY2026, filed): $259,000,000
After-tax interest added back — interest × (1 − 15.1% effective tax rate, filed tax ÷ filed pre-tax income): $219,846,964
Capital expenditures (FY2026, filed): $6,042,000,000
Base unlevered free cash flow (FCFF) — CFO + after-tax interest − CapEx: cash available to debt and equity holders, the flow a WACC discounts: $96,895,846,964

Stated assumptions — given to you, not filed

Annual FCF growth (stated assumption — not a filed figure; held fixed across the grid): 5%
Discount rate (stated assumption — not a filed figure; the grid re-runs the arithmetic at 8%, 9% and 10%, 1 percentage point each way): 9%
Terminal growth (stated assumption — not a filed figure; the grid re-runs the arithmetic at 2%, 2.5% and 3%, 0.5 percentage points each way): 2.5%
Projection horizon (stated assumption): 3 years

Derive the linked lines

Implied enterprise value with the discount rate at 8% and terminal growth at 2% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 8% and terminal growth at 2.5% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 8% and terminal growth at 3% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 9% and terminal growth at 2% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 9% and terminal growth at 2.5% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pair (the stated base case: the single-stage DCF drill's own sum)Implied enterprise value with the discount rate at 9% and terminal growth at 3% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 10% and terminal growth at 2% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 10% and terminal growth at 2.5% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pairImplied enterprise value with the discount rate at 10% and terminal growth at 3% — the full DCF arithmetic re-run at this cell's stated pair

NVIDIA CORP 10-K (FY2026, period ended 2026-01-25), accession 0001045810-26-000021, via SEC EDGAR

Educational use only — not investment advice.

In the interview

“How sensitive is a DCF to its assumptions?”

The 30-second answer

Very. Build a grid: discount rate on one axis, terminal growth on the other, and re-run the whole DCF at each pair. Value falls as the discount rate rises and climbs as terminal growth rises, and the effect is largest where the two are close, because the terminal value divides by their difference.

Why it works: The terminal value formula divides by the discount rate minus growth. Shrink that gap and the denominator shrinks, so a half point on either input can move the answer far more than a change to any single projection year.
The common trap: Moving only the terminal value when a rate changes. A new discount rate changes the present value of every projection year too, so each cell is a full re-run, not a patch on the base case.

The full mechanics · 5 steps

01Fix the base case: the same cash flows, growth and horizon as the single-stage DCF.
02Set the axes: discount rate one point either side of base, terminal growth half a point either side.
03For each pair, recompute every discounted cash flow and the discounted terminal value.
04Each cell is the implied enterprise value at that pair; the centre cell equals the base DCF.
05Read across a row and down a column to see which input moves the result more.

Comes up inIB superdayModeling testEquity research case

How this is graded

Operating cash flow, interest expense, the effective tax rate and capital expenditures, as filed in the latest annual report, bridged to unlevered free cash flow — the same base the single-stage DCF grounds on, so this drill needs nothing new from the filing. Each cell is checked against the value the same pipeline derives from that filing, inside a small tolerance band, and the model has to reconcile end to end. There is no language model in the grade — it is arithmetic over filed figures, so it returns the same verdict every time. The correct values are not in this page: they are recomputed on the server when you submit, and your entries are read as a submission, never as the answer.

Every attempt ends in a review. Each line is marked Best, Inaccuracy, Mistake or Blunder by how far it is off, and the first line that went wrong is flagged, so an error carried through the rest of the model is fixed once, where it started.

Signed out, nothing is recorded: work it as many times as you like. Signed in, each graded attempt is saved to your account so your dashboard can track it.

The same model, other filers

Each one is built from that company's own annual filing and graded the same way.

MSFT · dcf sensitivity grid GOOGL · dcf sensitivity grid AMZN · dcf sensitivity grid

Other models on NVDA

NVDA · accretion / dilution NVDA · comps (fundamentals)NVDA · single-stage dcf NVDA · ebitda bridge NVDA · basic lbo NVDA · three-statement linkage NVDA · wacc build-up

Terms this model is built from

Enterprise value Free cash flow walk Capital expenditures

Educational use only — not investment advice. Figures come from public SEC filings; Echelon teaches you to analyze data, it never recommends buying or selling any security.

“How sensitive is a DCF to its assumptions?”

The 30-second answer

Why it works

The terminal value formula divides by the discount rate minus growth. Shrink that gap and the denominator shrinks, so a half point on either input can move the answer far more than a change to any single projection year.

The common trap

Moving only the terminal value when a rate changes. A new discount rate changes the present value of every projection year too, so each cell is a full re-run, not a patch on the base case.

The full mechanics · 5 steps

01Fix the base case: the same cash flows, growth and horizon as the single-stage DCF.
02Set the axes: discount rate one point either side of base, terminal growth half a point either side.
03For each pair, recompute every discounted cash flow and the discounted terminal value.
04Each cell is the implied enterprise value at that pair; the centre cell equals the base DCF.
05Read across a row and down a column to see which input moves the result more.

Comes up inIB superdayModeling testEquity research case

How this is graded

Signed out, nothing is recorded: work it as many times as you like. Signed in, each graded attempt is saved to your account so your dashboard can track it.